1. Demographics
Silver Tsunami Turns Gold
Much has been written about how baby boomers are retiring, but this so-called silver tsunami extends beyond the rock-and-roll generation. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that, based on its 2017 national population projections, around 2035 the number of people in America older than 65 for the first time will outnumber those under 18. One out of every five Americans will be at the traditional retirement age.
And the trend won’t stop. By our target date of 2048, even millennials will begin to retire. Meanwhile, the nation’s population growth will slow down, as the baby boomers die at rates faster than new births can replace their numbers. The country will keep growing, the Census Bureau predicts, but mainly through immigration, not reproduction.
The graying of America has already prompted increasing interest in universal design, a set of principles that goes beyond helping the elderly to embrace people’s needs at all ages and physical abilities. Walk-in showers are an example. So are grippable towel racks, door handles instead of knobs, and path lighting that automatically comes on when the need arises in the middle of the night. Best Buy’s “Assured Living” package calms nervous children by helping them keep track of their elderly parents’ activities, sleep patterns, and general wellness.
In Hawaii, which historically has had one of the highest rates of homes with multiple generations, it’s already common for dealers’ home plans to include wheelchair-wide hallways and master-bedroom suites on the first floor. Elsewhere, universal design is seen more often in remodeling projects, particularly when people decide to age in place so they can be near children and grandchildren.
Expect to see ever more bathrooms like the universal design version that’s part of the Cost vs. Value project published by Remodeling, a sister publication to ProSales. Multigenerational living and shared “Golden Girls” housing has been on the increase for years, along with small personal dwellings (aka “casitas” or “granny flats”) that combine proximity with privacy.
“The tide is turning: Retailers are starting to realize there’s a big opportunity here that they’re not paying attention to,” retailing consultant Georganne Bender recently told The Washington Post. “For so long, everyone’s been focused on the younger customer. But if you look at the stats, baby boomers still control 70% of the country’s disposable income.”
Minority Majority Nation
Wags have long argued that America isn’t a melting pot so much as it is a stew or a salad bowl. Whatever your metaphor, it’s clear the ingredients are changing.
The Census Bureau predicts that, between 2016 and 2050, the nation’s population will grow by 20% but the number of non-Hispanic whites will decline by 6%. Meanwhile, the Bureau says, in just over 30 years we’ll have 32% more blacks, 74% more Hispanics/Latinos, and 79% more Asians.
As a result, the government figures that the share of non-Hispanic whites as a percentage of the entire population will drop to 48% from 61%. We will become a nation in which no race or ethnic group makes up a majority of the population.
These trends will affect dealers on two fronts. First, depending on where you’re located, you can expect to be catering more to nonwhite customers. Hispanics/Latinos, for instance, will represent more than one out of every four persons in the nation’s population by 2050, while one out of 12 will be Asian.
In addition, the drop in the birth rate means the United States is nearing the point where deaths will exceed births. At that point, all population growth will come from immigration.
Nonwhite communities often have different living arrangements and styles than their white counterparts. For instance, according to the Pew Research Center, in 2016 roughly 29% of Asian households had multiple generations under one roof, and the same was true for 27% of Hispanic and 26% of black households. In contrast, only 16% of white households were multigenerational. As for styles, builders such as The New Home Co. are appealing to Southern California’s Asian population by building homes according to Chinese feng shui principles.
Expect the second front to hit LBM workforces, as the current employment picture at dealers is whiter than the nation as a whole. As of 2017, 82% of the 1.09 million workers at retail building material and supplies dealers were white, the Census Bureau said. That’s five percentage points higher than for the nation as a whole. And of the 152,000 people working in wholesale operations selling lumber and other construction materials, 91% are white.
