"Where are prices going?” is a perennial question in the housing industry—one that has garnered even more attention recently given the volatility in the housing market over the past 12 months.
Heading into 2023, Fortune polled 18 top economists and housing experts across the country asking about expectations for where home prices might go this year (see graph below). There was a great divergence of opinions with some forecasters calling for price increases (up over 5%) and others expecting declines of 20%.
For context, it would take a nearly 30% decline in new-home prices and a 32% decline in existing-home prices to get them back to where they were going into the pandemic.
Pricing stats in early 2023 show a mixed message on a national level: • Zonda data for April showed list prices up year on year (YOY) in entry-level, move-up, and high-end tiers, +3.5%, +3.5%, and +6.9%, respectively;
• Zillow’s Home Value Index increased 5% YOY as of March;
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2% YOY in February, the most recent data available;
• The April data from the National Association of Realtors showed existing single-family prices were down 2.1% YOY; and
• The U.S. Census Bureau captured an 8.2% drop in median new-home prices compared with the same month of last year.
Looking by market, the wide variety of outcomes is also apparent, with some areas that have posted double-digit price appreciation while others have dropped down double-digits compared with last year.
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