The National Association of Home Builders' CEO Jerry Howard expects there to be a long legal battle regarding the softwood lumber agreement (SLA) between the U.S. and Canada and "[doesn't] see a path to a negotiated agreement right now," he tells PROSALES today in a joint interview with REMODELING.
"The first thing that I expect is that the United States, or the United States interests, will be filing suit any time now, claiming Canadian practices are inappropriate," Howard says. "The Canadians will then file a counter-suit and it will be tied up in the courts for several years."
It's been nearly 14 months since the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement between the U.S. and Canada expired, during which time negotiations have yielded little progress. Now that America has elected Donald Trump as its 45th president, Howard is uncertain about the future of a renewed SLA.
"Knowing Mr. Trump's positions on trade agreements, I'm not certain we should look to him to be somebody who's going to insert himself on our side of that issue in negotiations with Canada," Howard says.
At the moment, "the Canadian share of the U.S. market has averaged 28% annually," according to this report from the National Agricultural Law Center. Howard says that the NAHB is "very concerned about how much [that percentage] will be diminished" come a Trump administration.
"One of the reasons we needed so much Canadian lumber is because regulations have been put on our ability to harvest domestically," Howard says. "We will be talking with the Trump administration at the possibility of easing some of those regulations."
While Howard remains uncertain about the future of the SLA, Canadian officials have a different perspective. According to Richard Zussman, reporter for the CBC, "B.C. Premier Christy Clark is optimistic a softwood lumber deal can still be negotiated with a Donald Trump presidency." Zussman reports that Clark emphasizes that "we have stability. We have a candidate chosen. We have a senate and a house of representatives that has been chosen."
In a separate article from CBC, Brennan Neil reports that Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard has a less optimistic view of the agreement that his colleague: "Couillard said Trump's victory, along with the entire election campaign, has ushered in a period of economic instability and uncertainty," Neil writes. He continues:
Couillard said he is most preoccupied by what impact a Trump presidency might have on the province's lumber industry, since negotiations between the U.S. and Canada are underway now.
That concern is shared by Éric Tétrault, president of the Quebec Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
He said that with a new government, negotiations will have to start back at square one, and the intricacies of Quebec's lumber industry will have to be explained once again.
"Time is of the essence for softwood lumber," said Tétrault. "It's entirely possible that we have more work to do for softwood lumber than we have for the whole [trade] agreement."