Lumber prices have been trending down recently, in large part due to weaker demand on the market, according to recent reports from Madison’s Lumber Reporter and the NAHB.
In the week ending June 28, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD was $346 per thousand board feet, said forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter. This is down 3% from the previous week and 10% from a month ago. Compared to the same week last year, the price for the week ending June 28 was down 21%; two years ago, the price for Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD was $630 per thousand board feet, according to Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
An NAHB analysis for lumber prices for the week ending June 21 indicates framing lumber prices are down double-digits year-over-year while lumber futures prices were down nearly 20% compared to the prior year.
“Fort the time being, customer demand is served promptly by sawmills and lumber manufacturers; however if there is a bounce—even a small one—in sales of wood, either for new home building or for reconstruction after storms, shortages will appear almost immediately,” says Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. “Should this happen, anyone caught without wood they need for ongoing projects could be facing quite a price shock.”
Kosman says, in general, since mid-2022 builders and lumber buyers have been “extremely cautious” in their purchasing of manufactured wood products for fear of stocking up on inventory should prices fall significantly to more historic levels.
“The fact is, that since 2020 to 2022 there is a new floor, and lumber prices will never return to what were the lows in 2010,” Kosman says. “This is because the cost-of-production for sawmills has essentially doubled in the past five years. The ongoing uncertainty of macroeconomic conditions nationally and warfare globally is doing nothing to restore confidence.”
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