Demand for roofing in the United States will grow 2.4% per year through 2014 to reach 274.5 million squares worth $17.9 billion, up from 243.5 million in 2009, the Freedonia Group forecast today. Demand for asphalt shingles, which accounts for nearly three-fifths of the market, will rise 3.2% per year to 162.5 million squares in 2014, the Cleveland-based market analyst said.

The growth forecast contrasts with the experiences of the past five years, when U.S. roofing demand overall shrank 1.1% per annum and demand for asphalt shingles slipped 2.2% per year between 2004 and 2009. "Advances will be driven by an expected rebound in housing starts," Freedonia said. "Although housing starts will remain below the level reached in 2005, the recovery will fuel above-average gains in the residential roofing market through 2014." Residential roofing acounted for just under 60% of the total U.S. roofing market last year, Freedonia said.

Demand for non-residentail roofing will remain constant through 2014, Freedonia forecast.

Within the asphalt shingle sector, the part represented by laminated asphalt will jump from one-third of the market in 1999 to 80% of the demand in 2014. That in turn will damp the replacement market, Freedonia said, because laminated shingles have more than twice the lifespan of conventional asphalt shingles.

Roofing tiles will enjoy the biggest annual percentage increase--5.8% per year through 2014--because of continued population increases in the South and West, where tiles are most commonly used. But this market is tiny compared with asphalt shingles, rising to just 14.6 million squares in 2014 from 11 million squares in 2009. As for other market segments:

  • Bituminous low-slope roofing will decline 0.3% per year to 34.5 million squares.
  • Meal roofing will increase 0.9% annual to 22.5 million squares in 2014.
  • Elastomeric roofing--also known as roofing membranes--will increase by 1% per year to reach 20 million squares.
  • Other roofing materials will increase 2% per year to reach 20.4 million squares in 2014.
  • Demand for "green" roofing products, such as composite shingles and photovoltaic roofing, will rise 4% per year through 2014, Freedonia said, but its news release didn't forecast the total number of squares.