Demand for windows in the United States will reverse a four-year slide in 2010, climbing 10.5% to 43 million units and then continuing to rise steadily through 2013, a research group working for two major trade associations has forecast.
The market this year for windows in new construction will increase 17.5% to 13.4 million units, while demand in the remodeling and replacement market will increase 8% to 29.7 million units, predicts Ducker Reserach Co. of Troy, Mich. Its findings were announced June 4 by the Window & Door Manufacturers Association (WDMA) and the American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) in their annual U.S. Industry Statistical Review and Forecast, but actual numbers from the report weren't made available to ProSales until yesterday.
As for the year just passed, "The drastically declining new construction market coupled with the drop in remodeling expenditures continues to take a significant toll on nearly all the segments and regions of the residential window market," AAMA said in a statement. "In total, the residential window market declined by another 20%. New construction applications declined by 37% from 2008 to 2009 [reaching 11.4 million units], while remodeling and replacement applications dropped by 9% [to 27.5 million units]."
The AAMA/WDMA report forecast the housing market's recovery will help window shipments stop a slide that began in 2006, while demand in the replacement and remodeling market "is also expected to pick up slightly but is moderated by the still-weak consumer credit market." For both segments together, demand will rise to 43 million units this year, 52.8 million in 2011, 62.9 million in 2012 and 68.1% million.
The report also indicates a shift in the market share held by various window types. Most notably, wood windows' share of the new construction market has shrunk from 30.3% in 2004 to an expected 21.6% in 2010, the AAMA/WDMA report says, while vinyl windows' share increased from 48.4% in 2004 to 56.7% this year. A similar change has taken place in the remodel and replacement market: woods' share has shrunk from 28.9% in 2004 to an expected 21.5% this year, while vinyl's has widened from 62.2% to 70%.
Aluminum windows' market share in new-home construction has eroded to an expected 15.7% this year from 18.8% in 2004, while in the remodel and replacement market the drop has been much more severe, to 3.7% in 2010 from 6.7% in 2004.