Pro builders and remodelers are feeling great about the future--even more than recent growth and spending suggests--and are less likely to fall behind on payments, new research released by BlueTarp today indicates.

The credit management firm's Building Supply Index (shown above) rose to 120.43 in the fourth quarter of 2016 from a year-earlier 117.38. The index is based on a formula derived from published data (consumer confidence, construction spending, and building permits) as well as its own data drawn from 120,000 pro customers with accounts at more than 2,000 building material suppliers across the country.

A score above 100 on the index suggests healthy economic activity, and by all indications, that number will rise. BlueTarp regularly surveys pros about their state of mind. Here are the results when asked about their outlook for 2017:

This survey was conducted after Donald Trump's election as president last November but before he sworn in. "Our contractor sentiment boost mirrors what's happening with consumer confidence," Scott Simpson, BlueTarp's president and CEO, said in a statement. The press release also noted that survey respondents "pointed to tax relief, a more business-friendly environment, and new president-elect Donald Trump as explanations for the spike in confidence."

The size of that spike becomes more apparent when one compares contractors' outlook with their sales trends through 2016.

BlueTarp's report also included an X-Y grid in which it plots customers' purchasing volumes and payment speeds over time.

By linking the data points, you get a counter-clockwise circle, first toward less spending and more delinquency during the housing crash, then upward to more spending and low delinquency in the first stages of the recovery, and finally toward a second, smaller circle in which lately the spending has declined but delinquencies have dropped as well.