BlueTarp's 4Q17 index
BlueTarp Financial

Big gains in consumer confidence and contractor optimism pushed BlueTarp Financial's quarterly Building Supply Index to its highest level ever, the credit management company reported today. But that index also shows a slight rise in slow payments.

The index climbed to 130.52 as of 2017's fourth quarter from 122.23 a year before. A score above 100 indicates healthy economic activity. The index's 12-month trailing average has been above 100 since early 2013.

BlueTarp 4Q17 Index--builder sentiment
BlueTarp Financial

BlueTarp calculates its index from public data (building permits, construction spending, and consumer confidence) as well as from proprietary data. The Portland, Maine-based company serves 2,000 dealers nationwide that together have more than 120,000 customers on account.

"The index has reached its highest value over the last 10 years. There is no denying times are good right now," said Scott Simpson, BlueTarp's president and CEO. "Contractors expect this to continue or be further bolstered by tax legislation." Indeed, the company's quarterly survey of contractors found respondents were 14% more optimistic than in the recent past.

BlueTarp's 4Q17 spend/delinquency grid
BlueTarp Financial
Detail from BlueTarp's 4Q17 spend/recovery grid
BlueTarp Financial

But Simpson added: "I remain concerned delinquencies quietly continue to inch upward." BlueTarp shows this in a grid where it puts spending on the vertical axis and delinquencies on the horizontal axis. Pretty much since the middle of 2014, BlueTarp has been locating accounts in the "cautious" quadrant, in which spending is above average but delinquencies are, too. And for the quarter ending in December 2017, delinquencies got slightly worse even as spending was slightly higher.