According to the Commerce Department, new home sales increased 10% in January. Time to celebrate? Not so fast. December was only expected to see a 3-4% decline, a far cry from the reported 10% increase. Some say the increase was not "statistically significant," like MetroStudy's Jonathan Smoke.

What's really going on? Smoke thinks there's a small positive bounce on the way, but this isn't it.

See how he crunched his numbers here.